• info@sabahtalk.com
  • Borneo,
    Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, MY

Many people have their own opinion, but nothing can bt further from the truth.


Soon it will be the 14th general Election for Malaysia. Many predictions and gung-ho proclamations were made among supporters of both camps. DAP's Perak State Assemblyman, Nga has been telling his followers that in the coming election the chances of "Ubah" has never been better because they now have 4 lethal weapons against BN; 1MDB, Felda, GST, and TDM.


I think DAP is too optimistic. Given the past two Bersih and the recent ceramah at Shah Alam where TDM's name calling has not only rouse up Sultan of Selangor, he even managed to create a response from Indonesia. Expecting a Malay tsunami to propel them will be the greatest miscalculation of DAP.


Maybe DAP is not thinking about winning the election, they could be just aiming for the election fund from TDM, which could be the most ingenious way of holding on to politics in Malaysia for DAP (live and funded to fight for another day).


I have my own assessment of the political scene as well, and I have 4 predictions on the coming election. Based on the results of the past polls; the Sarawak state election, the Kangsa and Kuala Selangor by-elections, and the political situation on the grounds, both seen and unseen, it can be concluded that there can only be 4 outcomes in GE14.


Ranked on probability, they are;


1. BN will maintain status quo, winning the same number of seats as in the last election, plus or minus 5 seats. Although the 4 issues that Nga has pointed out do have some degree of impact on the coming election, given the result of all the recent polls, it seems likely to have much effect than Nga has wished.


2. BN will win a slim majority of between 115 to 120 seats. This is possible as the oppositions this time under TDM have been well greased and has the finances to fund their campaigns. The extra areas that oppositions may win are in the marginal or mixed seats where the Chinese, Indian, or East Malaysia Bumiputra votes may influence the outcome.


3. No clear winner and no one has the majority, but BN holds the most seats. This will be the start of the mother of all gutter politics, you can expect money politic in the dirtiest form from both camps, but more will be coming from the opposition as they have a desperate old man and 'tons' of his cronies at the back waiting to milk the country dry again. But my prediction will be a coalition government between BN and PAS because the only party that is most immune to money politic will be PAS. The downside is Malaysia society will likely be more conservative from thereon.


4. BN win 2/3 majority. Nothing more to say, Najib will continue to push for modernization of the country to transform the country to be a developed nation and a moderately high-income nation by 2050.


Say what you like, everybody entitled to their own opinion. You may give your prediction, but please support it with common sense, reason or facts.



Tzu P Wong